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Water Cooler: How long before Blue-ray takes over dvd?

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  1.  
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      CommentAuthorperthmetro
    • CommentTimeFeb 11th 2008 edited by perthmetro on the 11th February 2008 at 21:45:23 EST
     
    Please read this question carefully to understand what I'm asking.

    how long do you think it will take before MORE new computers start being sold with blueray drives instead of dvd drives?
    • CommentAuthorniemion
    • CommentTimeFeb 11th 2008
     
    Depends on the porn industry. shamed
    •  
      CommentAuthorperthmetro
    • CommentTimeFeb 11th 2008
     
    Posted By: perthmetroPlease read this question carefully to understand what I'm asking.


    I'm sure it depends on lots of things which is why i asked how long do you think...
    •  
      CommentAuthorJeremyD
    • CommentTimeFeb 11th 2008
     
    it depends on how soon BluRay wins over HDDVD. they wont standardize BluRay as the new drive for computers until then. And the porn industry went format neutral and has no value in this format war thanks to free pr0n on the internet.

    if i had to pull some random time frame out of the air, i'd say a year after bluray wins the format war. Because it'll take about that long for bluray drives to be cheap enough. Although, I think you can buy drives now though and some computers come with them already.
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      CommentAuthoricyone
    • CommentTimeFeb 11th 2008
     
    one year...netflix was the final straw for HD
    •  
      CommentAuthorperthmetro
    • CommentTimeFeb 11th 2008
     
    Posted By: JeremyDif i had to pull some random time frame out of the air, i'd say a year after bluray wins the format war.


    given ALL the factors and ALL you know and ALL you've considered.... gimme an absolute time... "a year after bluray wins" is a non-answer.
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      CommentAuthorperthmetro
    • CommentTimeFeb 11th 2008
     
    Posted By: icyoneone year...netflix was the final straw for HD


    good answer
    •  
      CommentAuthorperthmetro
    • CommentTimeFeb 11th 2008
     
    for the record.. i think 5 years
  9.  
    Pah, HD is already dead,
    •  
      CommentAuthoricyone
    • CommentTimeFeb 11th 2008
     
    You got the netflix in Perth Petie?shocked
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      CommentAuthoricyone
    • CommentTimeFeb 11th 2008
     
    If only my 360 would play it now (bluray) I would give it a shot. I hear it might be coming...
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      CommentAuthorperthmetro
    • CommentTimeFeb 11th 2008
     
    Posted By: icyonenetflix

    hahahahaha

    We don't even have 7 day/night trading here!

    ADSL2+ only came on a few years ago!
    •  
      CommentAuthoricyone
    • CommentTimeFeb 11th 2008
     
    I was ready to pack my cat up and move there cry
    •  
      CommentAuthorJeremyD
    • CommentTimeFeb 11th 2008
     
    Posted By: perthmetro
    Posted By: JeremyD if i had to pull some random time frame out of the air, i'd say a year after bluray wins the format war.


    given ALL the factors and ALL you know and ALL you've considered.... gimme an absolute time... "a year after bluray wins" is a non-answer.


    year and a half.
    •  
      CommentAuthorperthmetro
    • CommentTimeFeb 11th 2008
     
    so far...
    1 year
    5 years
    1.5 years
    •  
      CommentAuthorcoollew
    • CommentTimeFeb 11th 2008
     
    3 years
    •  
      CommentAuthorgnome
    • CommentTimeFeb 12th 2008
     
    It won't. By the time Sony, Toshiba and friends start getting any real market penetration in computer drives, something much larger will be here, and it will do everything better and by being a more open standard, whatever it is will swallow up the entire market. I don't know what it will be, but it will be here.
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      CommentAuthorperthmetro
    • CommentTimeFeb 13th 2008
     
    so your saying blue ray will never outsell dvd?
    • CommentAuthorMike Weiss
    • CommentTimeFeb 13th 2008
     
    It will when Sony makes the next rounds of donations to the people that matter, movie rental places, distributers, retail chains. I bet if sony could get one retail chain to switch over to blu-ray exclusivly or stock every blu-ray flick on shelves next to the standard movies, they would start to sell more.
  20.  
    I find it hard to put a time on this, but I DO disagree with Gnome. It WILL become a standard before something else takes over.

    The first "Blu-ray" prototype device was shown in late 2000, although it wasn't called Blu-ray at the time, but rather "DVR Blue." It had a lot of problems (such as minor scratches ruined the disk, so it needed to be inside a plastic enclosure), but it made a HUGE impression. In early 2002 it was dubbed Blu-ray and the foundation was created. Depending on how you look at it, this makes Blu-ray somewhere between 6 and 8 years old. Since nothing else has made another HUGE impression, you can assume that it's still 5-8 years off. Since I'm quite sure that Blu-ray will be the standard in less than five years, I don't think this is a likely situation.

    Since there's nothing at risk for getting this wrong, I'll throw two numbers into the hat. 1 year until they become "common" and 2.5 years until it's hard to get anything else. (like now, what computer comes with a CD-Rom? Thay all come with at least a DVD-Rom, and probably a DVD burner).
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      CommentAuthorgnome
    • CommentTimeFeb 13th 2008
     
    Remember that we are talking about computer data and not just movie sales. I don't think that for the next 2 years that anything beyond a 9GB dual-layer DVD will be needed for data for consumer software and data backup. The price has to drop like a stone, and computer-based players and burners need to show up in the next 10 months if it is ever going to happen. So I guess we shall see.
  22.  
    "Computer-based" Blue-ray drives and Blue-ray burners are here. The drives are less than $200, but the burners range from $400-$600 which means they need to come down in price.

    As for what people "need" 99% of computers out there have hardware that's more than what the user "needs." Most people don't need a DVD burner, but they have it. Blue-ray will be the same thing.
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      CommentAuthoricyone
    • CommentTimeFeb 13th 2008
     
    Posted By: aaroncampbellMost people don't need a DVD burner
    But they do if they like to make backups (of everything with more than 700 MB) and it helps they also burn cd's plus it plays DVD's (data and video)
  24.  
    Won't be long now with Walmart, Netflix and Toshiba pulling out of the HD DVD format.
    HD DVD death watch
    •  
      CommentAuthorperthmetro
    • CommentTimeFeb 19th 2008
     
    It's offical, Toshiba abandons HD DVD.

    But I still think it will take at least 3 years before more computers are sold with Blueray more than DVD
  26.  
    Posted By: SeanPollockPah, HD is already dead,


    So, I was the right one here :D.
  27.  
    Blueray players for computers are coming down. 129.99 for a PC player.
    Lite-On Blueray Player
  28.  
    And the cheap burners are down to $354.99 . . . They still have to get quite a bit lower, but that's the right direction at least.

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